Whither Turkey? Parliamentary election coming July 22

Al-Ahram Weekly | Region | Turkey at the crossroads:

"At a time when there still has been no concerted attempt to solve the Kurdish problem, the country cannot afford another deep division in society. But at the moment the JDP and the secularists who have been taking to the streets appear to be moving further apart, not coming together."

In what could be a major watershed election on July 22, Turkish voters must decide whether they will continue to have a secular republic or slide further into the abyss of Islamic extremism.

Turkey has a very awkward electoral system based on proportional representation but requiring a party to get a minimum of ten percent of the vote to gain any representation. So many small parties were represented in the 2002 vote that only two parties crossed the threshhold and the Justice and Development Party (JDP), the Islamist party, walked off with a two-thirds majority despite getting only one-third of the votes.

This election may be much different as center-left and center-right parties are forming mergers and pro-secular demonstrations have attracted large numbers of persons. The problem is that the JDP will likely still be the largest party and may well get a majority in the parliament without a majority of the vote and still claim a mandate for its anti-secular policies.

This, in turn, could lead the military to reassert its traditional role as the last line of defense of the pro-secular Turkish constitution. Either military intervention or a retreat from secularism could have serious repercussions for Turkey's long-delayed bid to join the EU.