When is 62% not a mandate?.

Haaretz - Israel News - A Palestinian turnaround?:
"... it is too early to start opening the Champagne. Sixty-two percent support for Abu Mazen, says [Prof. Khalil] Shikaki, does not in any way reflect 62 percent support for stopping the intifada."

This quote catches the cautiously optimistic tone of remarks by Prof. Shikaki, head of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, as reported by Akiva Eldar in Friday's edition of Haaretz.com. Last Sunday's lopsided victory of Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, to head the Palestinian Authority does not necessarily mean an overwhelming mandate to renounce violence nor to make peace on terms that will be easy for Israel to accept.

For the time being, Abu Mazen will likely concern himself with plans for reforming the PA to make it more amenable to central control. The fractured nature of important parts of its governmental machinery, especially the security forces, was useful to Arafat as a way to keep any one rival from getting too powerful. Mazen knows he needs to centralize control to be in a credible position to negotiate with Israel. The other key to those negotiations on the Palestinian side will be the outcome of the Legislative Council elections to be held in July.

Shikaki points out that his research shows a genuine desire for peace in the sense that few Palestinians are hopeful that continued armed confrontation will produce any benefits. On the other hand, many remain emotionally committed to the struggle and admiring of the sacrifices that have been made for the Palestinian cause.

For his part, Abu Mazen, the reformer, the fresh face, the hope for peace, is not going to make things easy for his negotiating counterparts. His public stance is based on the 1967 borders with minor adjustments, East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital, and repatriation of Palestinian refugees. From Arafat, this sort of outline would look like a non-starter, but this is a new game with new players.

As an indication of the complexity of the current situation, consider that only a third of Palestinian Arabs support the present Israeli government's plan to unilaterally pull Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip. Most would prefer to see such a step as part of a wider agreement and some fear that removing the IDF troops guarding the settlers will leave a void that will be filled by street gangs.