More bird flu confusion

Avian flu: Is hype for the birds? (phillyBurbs.com) | Courier Times:

"Still, a moderately severe strain of this avian flu could kill more than 500,000 Americans and hospitalize 2.3 million, according to Trust for America's Health, a Washington, D.C.-based public health advocate group. In Pennsylvania, its projections are 27,185 dead; 112,658 hospitalized.

"CDC estimates, though, are a 'medium-level' pandemic (without vaccinations or medications) could cause 89,000 to 207,000 U.S. deaths, between 314,000 and 734,000 hospitalizations; between 15 and 35 percent of the U.S. population could be affected, and the economic impact could range between $71 billion and $166 billion."

It's almost impossible to know what to make of this, especially when you encounter a jewel like this:
"If this bird flu mutates into a virus strain, people have little or no immunity protection; scientists also predict such a mutation could make it less deadly than it has been among people who've contracted it from direct contact with infected birds, [Dr. William] Schaffner [an infectious disease and vaccine specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville] added."

If you consider that the number of persons living in close contact with domestic fowl in China and SE Asia must number in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, and that only about a 100 of them have died from H5N1 over several years, this hardly seems like the "big one" - and now they tell us the same mutation that allows it to spread human-to-human may well make it less virulent.

The main reason for linking this story was as a contrast with the recent war gaming in Washington. Federal officials admitted that the state and local officials would be key to the effectiveness of any response. Here we have some insight into local preparedness in a relatively wealthy suburb of Philadelphia.