Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Israeli officials differ on "point of no return"

IDF chief Halutz: Iran able to resume enriching uranium in March:

"Iran will be capable of enriching uranium within the next three months, but will have to overcome many technological obstacles before reaching the nuclear 'point of no return,' Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said on Tuesday."

Although this story from the Israeli daily Ha'aretz doesn't make the connection explicitly, it follows upon reports that the Israeli government was setting a March deadline for Iranian compliance with IAEA restrictions on its nuclear program or face unilateral military action by Israel. Those reports hinged on the idea that March would represent a "point of no return" in Iranian nuclear development.

For example, "Two weeks ago, Major Gen. Aharon Ze'evi (Farkash), director of Military Intelligence, told the committee that attempts to use diplomacy to thwart Iran's nuclear plans would be in danger when Iran begins enriching uranium  a phase he defined as the point of no return. 'If Iran's nuclear efforts are not halted by the end of March 2006, there will be no more reason for diplomatic activity,' Ze'evi said at the time."

This would appear to be the context within which we should read the above quote from the IDF COS Dan Halutz. Without renouncing Israel's option to act pre-emptively, he is redefining the "point of no return" to a point some years in the future rather than March 2006.

On the other hand, "[Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense]Committee chair MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) said it is clear the Iranians are moving toward nuclear armament and that time is running out for Israel and the world to stop Tehran's advances. He opposed the use of the term 'point of no return,' saying that the process of building a nuclear weapon could be stopped at any point."

Meanwhile, the leaders of Iran continue to make gratuitously unhelpful public statements. Following close on the heels of new President Ahmedinejad denying that the Holocaust ocurred, we have this statement from the real top man in Iran telling one of the region's top terrorist leaders to keep up the killing, "Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, encouraged Palestinians yesterday to continue their struggle against Israel. Iranian television reported that Khamenei told Hamas leader Khaled Meshal that 'the experience of the last 50 years teaches that negotiation with the Zionist occupation doesn't improve the situation. We will achieve victory through the struggle only.'"

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