But, what about the Wall?

5 million more Latam migrants in US by 2015: study�|�Reuters.com:
"The U.S. recruitment company Manpower, which carried out the study, said toughening penalties for illegal immigration would not deter young adults in Mexico and Central and South America from pursuing a better life in the United States."

The "study" also says the result will be the same whether, in the words of the Reuters story, "Congress decides to criminalize or legalize illegal immigrants."

First, notice that the alternatives are said to be to "criminalize or legalize" but unauthorized entry is already a crime, that's why the Neanderthals like me call those who enter the US without permission "illegal" aliens. Obtaining employment in the US without a "green card" is also a crime. Another reason we call immigants who do this "illegal." Using false papers (forged birth certificates, fake Social Security cards, fraudulently obtained drivers licenses, etc.) to obtain employment or government benefits is also criminal conduct.

Presumably, the article is attempting to contrast the House immigration bill which would reclassify illegal entry from a misdemeanor to a felony with President Bush's amnesty plan. Of course, these are not the only alternatives, it might be that both features would be included in a compromise reform bill or that no bill will be agreeable to both the House and the Senate.

Second, as an economist, I have a bit of trouble with the idea that a change in the risk-reward structure will not alter patterns of behavior. It is not too unreasonable that merely raising illegal entry to a felony might have no measurable impact, but passage of an amnesty program is certain to encourage an increase in illegal entry, at least in the short run. The reason for this is that any program that offers amnesty to persons who can prove they have been here for two years or so will draw new entrants up to the application cut-off date who will plan on acquiring fake documentation of their residence for the required period.

The "study" - at least as reported here - ignores the possibility of completing the fence along the Mexican border. That, and committing sufficient resources to end "catch and release," ought to slow the influx to a trickle and allow us to begin the long, slow process of sending illegal entrants back to their homes.