Friday, February 18, 2005

More hot air? Or, are we really in hot water now? Greenhouse gases 'do warm oceans'

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Greenhouse gases 'do warm oceans':
"The team fed different scenarios into computer simulations to try to reproduce the observed rise in ocean temperatures over the last 40 years.
"They used several scenarios to try to explain the oceanic observations, including natural climate variability, solar radiation and volcanic emissions, but all fell short.
"'What absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming,' said Dr [Tim] Barnett [of Scripps Institution of Oceanography].
"This model reproduced the observed temperature changes in the oceans with a statistical confidence of 95%, conclusive proof - say the researchers - that global warming is being caused by human activities."

Forgive me if I don't join the Chicken Littles in chanting "The sky is warming! The ocean is warming! We're all gonna die!" just yet. For starters, it is hard to see how they could rule out natural variability so readily since, in geologic terms, the period of record for ocean temperature measurements of comparable scope and quality to the last 30 or 40 years is pretty short. For another, there are still some nagging difficulties with regard to the atmospheric temperature data which don't track very well with the GHG models and the Global Warming alarmists had started this whole debate based on atmospheric rather than oceanic warming and now seem to be doing a bait and switch.

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